Finance

Will the market rebound because inflation is “good”?Big Three Bullish Retracement


Dow Jones futures will open Sunday night, with U.S. markets closed on Friday. The Fed’s favorite inflation report was largely in line with expectations, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell expressing satisfaction with Friday’s data.




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The stock market rally comes after a holiday-shortened week.Growth stocks, especially AI-led companies, e.g. Nvidia (NVDA), fell back somewhat, but overall remained above the support level. The market has shown strong momentum to shake off this impact, with strong breadth. Small-cap stocks led the gains, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 hitting record highs. The Nasdaq edged lower as tech giants retreated.

Nvidia needs more time, but Microsoft (Microsoft Corporation), meta platform (Mehta) and mass strike (CRWD) Tech leaders are bullishly retreating.

At the same time, new AI chip IPO Astra Labs (University of Alabama) is retreating from Tuesday’s record highs. Continued pause in Nvidia stock and artificial intelligence stocks could put a short position on ALAB stock IPO base.

Meanwhile, Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers Nioh (NIO), ideal car (LI) and Xiaopeng (electric car) will announce March and first-quarter deliveries early on Monday, April 1.Electric car giant BYD (BYD Dongfeng) should report a sharp rally in March on Monday or Tuesday. Tesla (Tesla) will likely announce first-quarter deliveries on Tuesday. Expectations for Tesla are lower, while Nio and especially Li Auto have cut their delivery targets in recent days.

Nvidia, META stocks rise IBD rankings.Microsoft stock is at IBD Long-Term Leader Nvidia, Meta Platforms and CrowdStrike stocks are on the list IBD 50 List.

Personal Consumption Expenditure Inflation

this February PCE price index The U.S. Commerce Department reported on Friday that prices rose 0.3% from January, slightly below expectations for a 0.4% rise. PCE growth in January was revised up to 0.4%. PCE inflation was 2.5% year-on-year, in line with the same period last year. Slightly higher than January’s 2.4%.

The core PCE price index (the Fed’s top inflation gauge) rose 0.3% from January, in line with expectations, and the unrounded figure was 0.26%. January’s reading was revised to a gain of 0.5%. Core PCE inflation was 2.8%, higher than expected in January. Annual growth was 2.9%, lower than expected last year.

Inflation has proven sticky in recent months, making the Fed less eager to lower interest rates.

However, the relatively consistent PCE inflation report should allow the Fed to cut interest rates in June. The probability of a rate cut in June was about 64% on Thursday.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Friday it was “a good thing” that there were no ugly surprises in the personal consumption expenditures data, adding that the report was “more or less in line with what we wanted to see.” He reiterated that policy Framers Want More He noted that cutting interest rates too early could be “very damaging” but also said waiting too long could mean “unnecessary damage to the economy and the labor market.”

Investors won’t have a chance to respond until Dow Jones futures open Sunday night, and the real test will come on Monday.

PCE inflation data is released as part of the income and expenses report. Personal income grew 0.3%, below expectations of 0.4%. Consumer spending rose 0.8%, compared with expectations for a 0.5% increase.

Dow Jones Futures Today

Dow futures will open at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures.

U.S. markets will not be trading on Friday due to the Good Friday holiday. European markets and Hong Kong were also closed on Friday and will remain closed on Easter Monday.

Remember what you did that night Dow Jones Futures and other places that won’t necessarily translate into actual transactions on the next regular basis stock market Meeting.


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Stock market rebounds

The stock market rebound featured modest to strong weekly gains, in addition to some growth stocks.

Dow Jones Industrial Average rises 0.8% weekly stock market tradingIt closed at a record high on Thursday. The S&P 500 rose 0.4%, having just hit an intraday record high on Thursday. The Nasdaq fell 0.3%, just below its peak. The Dow Jones is up 5.6% this quarter, the S&P 500 has jumped 10.2% and the Nasdaq is up 9.1%.

Market breadth has been impressive this week. The small-cap Russell 2000 index rose 2.5%, hitting a two-year high. Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) rose 1.6%, hitting a record high. First Trust Nasdaq 100 Equal Weight Index ETF (QQ) rose 0.4%, while the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5%.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell 3 basis points this week to 4.19%, falling below the 200-day line.

U.S. crude oil futures were expected to rise 3.15% to $83.15 a barrel last week, after soaring 16.1% in the first quarter.

ETF

Among growth ETFs, iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) fell 0.8% this week. Microsoft stock is a big holding, and CrowdStrike is also in IGV. VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) fell 1.2%. But that all happened within a few weeks, giving back only a portion of the previous week’s strong gains.

The ARK Innovation ETF reflects the more speculative story stocks (alke) topped 1.3% last week, with the ARK Genomics ETF (arkg) rose 2.1%. Tesla stock is the top holding of the Ark Invest ETF.

Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) edged up 0.6%, with the Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) rose 1.7%, with the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (Xin Hong) exceeded 1.2%, both hitting record highs.

SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) rose 4% last week. US Global Jets ETF (Jeters) rose 3.3%, both best in months. Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) rose 2.15% to a 52-week high. Healthcare Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) rose to 1.6%, slightly lower than the highest level in history.


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NVIDIA Stock

Nvidia shares fell 4.2% this week to 903.56, ending an 11-week streak of gains of 92%. The stock has yet to test its 21-day moving average and is trading within a three-week range. After such a strong run up, it makes sense for Nvidia to consolidate for a while. The new base could arrive in a matter of weeks, but NVDA stock could be stalled for a longer period of time, like in the late months of 2023.

Many other AI stocks could take a cue from Nvidia, especially chip stocks. A longer pause to lay the groundwork and allow the moving averages to catch up would be constructive.

Astera Laboratories Stock

Astera Labs’ stock price was 36. It soared 72% on its first day on March 20. The AI ​​chip IPO surged to 95.21 on Tuesday, and then reversed lower. ALAB stock prices continued to correct, with the stock price rising 5.9% to 74.15 this week.

It’s usually a good idea to wait for an IPO stock to find its feet and form some kind of consolidation within a few weeks. The IPO basis can be very short, as little as two weeks, or even informally a few days shorter than that. But they usually form within a few weeks, depending on market conditions. IPO fundamentals can bring huge returns.

Astera Labs has achieved rapid revenue growth based on a low base. It will suffer a loss in 2023, but it is expected to turn a loss into a profit in 2024, and its profits will continue to grow strongly in 2025.


Will Reddit put a stop to America’s swelling IPO pipeline?


Stocks near buy point

Microsoft’s stock price has fallen for five consecutive trading days, but the decline has been modest and trading volume has been light. The stock price is slightly below 420.82 points. buy some, but still held above the 21st line. A rebound is possible.

Meta shares fell 4.7% last week to 485.58, but trading volume was weak. The stock price is slightly below the 21-day line. Shares are pulling back toward the rapidly rising 10-week line, which is likely to be roughly in line with Monday’s Meta. This will be the first true 10-week test in 2024. A rebound from this level will provide a buying opportunity. Meta stock could also form a new bottom within weeks.

In the latest week, CrowdStrike shares fell 2.1% to 320.59, finding support near the 21-day and 10-week lines. The cybersecurity leader’s consolidation has been chaotic, but investors could draw a buy point near 338.45 or potentially use Wednesday’s high of 333.84 as an early entry point.

In fact, many software stocks are hovering near support and possible entry points, including CrowdStrike peers Cyber ​​Ark Software (CYBR) also Yunyao (net), monday.com (Minnidi), Immediate service (Now) and pivot point (hub).


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Tesla Stock

Tesla shares rose 2.9% last week to 175.70, but encountered resistance at the 10-week line.Bulls are banking on major improvements to fully autonomous driving technology, with CEO Elon Musk requiring FSD test drives before new purchases or after service visits. But in the short term, analysts continue to make deep cuts. Tesla earnings and delivery forecasts. This is mainly due to generally weak demand for electric vehicles.Competition continues to heat up in China, smartphone makers Xiaomi makes big move into electric vehicle market Thursday.

Tesla will release first-quarter production and delivery data on Tuesday, April 2, and release first-quarter earnings later this month.

what to do now

The stock market rally appears to be broadening and spinning in a constructive manner. While this article focuses primarily on technology stocks, investors can find actionable or promising stocks in the housing, financial, healthcare, travel, and consumer sectors.

Eli Lilly and Company (Li Lai), medical space (MEDP), Uber Technologies (Uber), Elf beauty (Very low frequency), next tracker (NXT), XP (XP), royal caribbean (RCL), East West Bank (Peripheral blood white blood cell count), Axon Enterprises (axon), Reserved (Arcana), M/I House (MHO) and Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) are just a few of them.

Technology growth leaders such as Nvidia, Microsoft and Meta are likely to consolidate over the longer term.

So cast a wide net and add promising names to your watch list. Use the long weekend to run your screens and do some research on some specific goals.

Don’t forget about defense. Several major stocks have given sell signals to recent buyers over the past week. While many stocks are building up or retracing in ways that look bullish, it doesn’t take much selling to start looking worse.

read overall view Stay up to date with market direction and leading stocks and industries every day.

Please follow Ed Carson’s thread: @edcarson1971,X/Twitter on @IBD_ECarson With the blue sky @edcarson.bsky.social Get stock market updates and more.

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