Why I’m (cautiously) optimistic about COP28

The most obvious requirement is that countries close the gap between goals and policies. Empty promises mean nothing. Countries need to develop practical policies to reduce emissions.

Ambitious targets for scaling up low-carbon technologies will be a key pillar.The International Energy Agency pointed out in its 2023 “Roadmap to Net Zero Emissions by 2050” report call Renewable energy capacity will triple by 2030. Nearly all of this will come from solar and wind energy. This is crucial if the world is to reach peak coal production and reduce global coal production.

This goal looks set to be led by the European Commission.Earlier this fall, it Explaining its COP28 position, a doubling of renewable energy growth is at the heart of its negotiating position. The rapid expansion of renewable energy is unlikely to be a source of controversy (although the speed may be).

Even more controversial are calls for a global phase-out of “unreduced” fossil fuels – those burned without carbon capture and storage. This reduction is exactly what the European Commission is asking for. Two years ago, there was a heated debate over how to reduce carbon emissions. Phase out coal. Eventually, a watered-down agreement was reached: “gradually reduce Unreduced coal”: Coal consumption accounts for a smaller proportion of the energy mix, but it has not been completely eliminated.

last year india calls for a gradual reduction Expanded to all fossil fuels. Eighty countries, including those in the European Union, backed the proposal to expand to oil and gas, but it faced strong resistance from others. The same is expected to happen this year, but some countries have expressed strong opposition. I’m fairly optimistic about ambitious targets for renewable energy, but I’m skeptical about the likelihood of a global agreement on phasing out (or phasing out) fossil fuels.

This is worrying because developing low-carbon technologies will not be enough to stop climate change. A real commitment to reducing the use of fossil fuels is critical; as we charge solar and wind energy, we need to be aggressive in reducing the use of fossil fuels.

Fundamentally, climate negotiations are about money. This year is no exception. Tensions between developed and developing countries will grow as rich countries fail to deliver on previous pledges to provide $100 billion in annual climate finance to help low-income countries. Middle-income countries (LMICs) invest in low-carbon technologies and adapt to climate impacts. Exactly which low- and middle-income countries should receive climate finance and how they are spent remains controversial.

Discuss one again “Loss and Damage” Fund– Rich countries, which bear the greatest responsibility for the issue, footing the bill for climate damage in low-income countries – will be at the top of the agenda for low- and middle-income countries.Some countries have agreed blueprint proposal Over the past few weeks, but this won’t be finalized until next month. The fund will initially be housed at the World Bank, and how many countries should contribute to the fund has not yet been decided. I expect these conversations to be intense.

Arguably, the biggest developments occurred off the main stage in side room discussions. Private sector investment and innovation are critical, whether financing low-carbon projects, implementing adaptation measures or developing new technologies. Achieving net zero emissions will require solutions from: every sector – not just power and transport that grab the headlines – but also cement, steel and agriculture. It is in the corridors that these solutions are built and partnerships are forged.

I expect COP28 to leave me in the same pessimistic-optimistic mood as I am today. There will be positive factors that push us further, but this progress will keep us from reaching the goals we desperately need to reach.

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