Tesla deliveries are about to begin, and expectations hit rock bottom.

Tesla (Tesla) is expected to release global first-quarter delivery and production data on Tuesday, with analysts and observers speculating that auto sales could fall to levels not seen in a year as weak demand for electric vehicles takes a toll. Tesla shares fell early Tuesday.


With the first quarter winding down, Wall Street’s consensus forecast is now for first-quarter deliveries of 457,000 vehicles, according to FactSet. That number started at 471,000 last week and was steadily declining before Tesla announced global deliveries. The 457,000 figure likely includes predictions from several analysts, but those predictions have not been confirmed. There have been no updates for weeks or months.

The actual forecast appears to be closer to Tesla’s first quarter 2023 number of 422,875 units. The global electric vehicle giant set a record delivery volume of 484,507 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2023. The previous quarterly delivery record was 466,140 units in the second quarter.

Tesla announced on Friday that it had produced 6 million vehicles, leading some observers to raise first-quarter production forecasts.

The electric vehicle giant is expected to announce delivery numbers for the first quarter of 2024 on Tuesday. Last year, Tesla announced first-quarter production and deliveries on April 2.

Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives has been optimistic about Tesla for a long time. Last week, he lowered his target price of Tesla’s stock price from 315 points to 300 points, and also called this quarter a “nightmare” for Tesla. The analyst said he remains bullish on Tesla in the long term, despite the “near-term dark storm demand cloud building.”

Ives expects Tesla to deliver about 426,000 vehicles as the electric car company deals with issues with the Model 3 Highland upgrade in the United States and slowing sales in Europe. However, Ives pointed out that “Tesla’s biggest and most worrying issue” is China because “Tesla is rising.” “Last year, and especially this quarter, electric vehicle competition and continued price wars made this key market very challenging for Tesla.”

Ives wrote on Wednesday that when Tesla reports global deliveries, it won’t be “a moment of celebration for the bulls, but rather a Band-Aid quarterly tear for Tesla investors.”

Meanwhile, another Tesla bull at Morgan Stanley, Adam Jonas, on Wednesday lowered his first-quarter delivery forecast to 425,000 units from 469,000 units and lowered his full-year delivery forecast to 195,000 units. Thousands of vehicles.

Tesla’s Chinese rivals NIO, Li Auto and Xpeng Motors’ delivery volumes increased in March

Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi took a more bearish view on Tesla, noting last week that Tesla experienced “soft” demand in China and Europe as well as U.S. Model 3 production in the first quarter. limits”. Sacconaghi slashed his first-quarter delivery forecast from 490,000 vehicles. The unit is 426,000, the same as Ives in Wedbush.

However, Troy Teslike, a well-respected source of delivery forecasts and Tesla data tracking among Tesla retail investors, has finalized first-quarter deliveries expected at 409,000 vehicles. Teslike predicts Tesla’s first-quarter production to be 429,954 vehicles.

Tesla shares fell about 1% during the period Pre-market action Tuesday. On Monday, TSLA shares edged down 0.3% to 175.22. Meanwhile, Cathie Wood and her Ark Invest fund increased their holdings of Tesla stock on Monday, buying 84,164 shares, according to the company’s daily trading disclosures.

Full-year EPS forecast, but will Q2 improve?

With the first quarter now over, analysts now agree that Tesla’s profits in 2024 will be firmly below 2023 levels. That marks another year of declining earnings for this growth stock. Wall Street currently expects Tesla to earn just $2.87 per share in 2024, according to FactSet. This would be a decrease of 8% compared to last year’s $3.12.

Wall Street’s consensus earnings per share estimate for Tesla in 2024 has fallen nearly 25% since the end of 2023. Some analysts believe profits could fall further, possibly to around $2.26 per share in 2021.

However, while first-quarter deliveries are expected to be disappointing, Tesla’s business is expected to pick up in the second quarter as sales of Model 3 and Cybertruck increase.

Wall Street is now forecasting 510,000 second-quarter deliveries, according to FactSet. Troy Teslike estimates second-quarter deliveries to total 460,000 vehicles, slightly lower than the second quarter of 2023. Teslike’s Cybertruck deliveries did double, from just over 4,000 units in the first quarter to 8,160 units in the second quarter. Sales of Teslike’s Model 3 in the United States also increased as production increased, with the second quarter increasing by 70% compared with the first quarter.

At the same time, Tesla increased the prices of all Model Y models in the United States on April 1. Tesla raised the price of Model Y vehicles in Europe on March 22. In China, Tesla raised prices for its entire Model Y series by about $690 in April.

In order to maintain sales momentum in 2023 and 2024, Tesla has significantly reduced prices and provided discounts, causing the gross profit margin of automobiles to fall sharply below 20% in the fourth quarter of 2021, which peaked at 30% due to the industry’s chip shortage.

Tesla continues to offer deep discounts on in-stock Model Y vehicles in the U.S. and other markets.

Tesla stock plummets in 2024, but at least it’s cheaper, right?No

Tesla stock performance

Last week, Tesla shares rose 2.9% to 175.79, rising for a second consecutive week as the electric car company began rolling out its latest Full Self-Driving (FSD) update to customers. Tesla shares are slightly below their 50-day moving average.

An email from CEO Elon Musk leaked on social media platforms showed that he is mandating that vehicles in North America install and activate the latest version of FSD and allow customers to conduct “brief test drives before delivery.”

Tesla also offers a 1-month free trial of FSD in the United States for new purchases or existing FSD-enabled electric vehicles.

On March 15, Tesla’s stock price fell 6.7% to 163.57 points, a new low in 2024 and a new low since May 2023.Tesla’s stock price fell about 13% in March, which is S&P 500’s biggest decline 2024 to present.

The EV giant ranks eighth in the 35-member IBD Automobile manufacturers industry cluster.Stocks have 32 Overall rating Best 99 points.Tesla stock also has 10 points relative strength rating and 67 EPS Rating.

Follow Kit Norton on X (formerly Twitter), @kitnorton for more coverage.

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