Scott Boras forgets about Jordan Montgomery’s one-year deal after offseason

The offseason is finally over for Scott Boras, and it’s not a good time.

The 2023-24 MLB offseason will be remembered by many as the winter Shohei Ohtani Signed a record-breaking 10-year, $700 million contract. Los Angeles Dodgers‘ A total of $1 billion in free agency.or new york yankees landing Juan Soto with san diego padres.

It’s been a busy offseason, but the storyline that’s taken the longest is that of Boras and his top four free agents. Boras is already halfway into winter. Yahoo Sports top 10 free agents As a Client: Defending Cy Young Champions Blake SnellFormer MVP Cody Bellingerplayoff hero Jordan Montgomerydefensive ace Matt Chapman Also imported from South Korea Li Zhenghou.

plum A deal worth $113 million was quickly signed and san francisco giants, this is definitely a win for Boras. However, the other four players are all expected to sign larger deals.

None of them did this.

Instead, all four of them carried their free agency into March and then signed those who opted out to short-term deals that would allow them to retest the market next offseason if they perform as well as last year. . Montgomery was the last to sign, agreed to a one-year, $25 million contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks on Tuesday. It can be said that this was not Boras’ plan.

The magnitude of the situation is shown by the guaranteed money issued to the top 10 free agents (Boras clients in bold):

  1. Shohei Ohtani: 10 years, $700 million

  2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 12 years, US$325 million

  3. Aaron Nora: Seven years, $172 million

  4. Blake Snell: Two years, $62 million

  5. Cody Bellinger: Three years, $80 million

  6. Jordan Montgomery: One year, $25 million

  7. sonny gray: Three years, US$75 million

  8. Matt Chapman: Three years, $54 million

  9. Josh Hader: Five years, $95 million

  10. Lee Jung-hou: Six years, US$113 million

MLB's top 10 free agents finally signed.

MLB’s top 10 free agents are finally all signed, and half of them are Scott Boras clients.

Boras is known for his strategy of prioritizing free agency over extensions and being willing to wait for teams to offer his clients the biggest deals. This strategy has worked very well in the past, but sometimes problems arise.

This is definitely bigger than a minor problem. Let’s go through each of the Big Four to see what they expected, what they turned down, and perhaps why teams are worried about backing Brink’s truck.

Blake Snell

Median Fangraphs crowdsourced projections: Five years, $125 million
Report asking price: US$270 million
Reality: Two years, $62 million (opt-out)

Snell was one of 22 pitchers to win the NL Cy Young Award last season in baseball history Winning multiple awards, the results are less than half of those of his former teammates Tyler Glasnow Acquired from Los Angeles Dodgers (five-year, $135 million contract extension).

It’s hard to see Snell improving on a Cy Young-season deal, which makes a short-lived proof-of-contract deal especially awkward.

if you want to know Why so many teams are hesitant to add Snell, which may start with his age. Snell is 31, old for an elite first-time free agent. For a so-called elite pitcher, he’s also been inconsistent in terms of health and performance. His two Cy Young wins also happen to be the only times in his career that he has thrown more than 130 innings in a season.

His 2023 season also includes some outside red flags, most notably a career-worst 13.3% walk rate. Add it all up, and you can see why some teams are worried about betting that Snell will be worth elite pitching money at age 35.

Still, Snell report At some point this offseason, Boras was offered a six-year, $150 million contract to the New York Yankees. Boras probably wishes he’d forgotten that.

Cody Bellinger

Fangraphs forecast: Six years, $144 million
Report asking price:More than US$200 million
Reality: Three years, $80 million (with two opt-outs)

Bellinger really shines in 2023, taking full advantage of a move from the Dodgers to chicago cubs Entering one of the best offensive seasons of his career. A strong defensive center fielder who could hit 307/.356/.525 like Bellinger did last year would be one of the best players in baseball and definitely worth a nine-figure deal.

However, the team had doubts about Bellinger’s performance after just one year. It’s hard to forget how much of a mess his later years with the Dodgers were, at least in part due to a shoulder injury suffered during the 2020 High Five. NLCS (yes, really).

Bellinger was in such dire straits that the Dodgers, instead of making him an offer, paid him about $18 million in arbitration salary, and he eventually signed a one-year, $17.5 million contract with the Cubs . A nine-figure guy, especially when you’re a tough swingman with an injury history.

That said, if Bellinger performs well in 2024, he might be the best option of them all to land a big deal.

Jordan Montgomery

Fangraphs forecast: Five years, $105 million
Report asking price: US$170 million
Reality: One year, $25 million (with vesting options in the second year)

Unlike other trades, Montgomery actually has to do some work before he can become a free agent after this season.he report The option to opt out is only available if you make at least 10 starts in 2024.

Go back five months and tell anyone Montgomery would be in this position and have a laugh. Montgomery spent most of his career as a solid to good pitcher for the Yankees, st louis cardinalsand then when he was traded to Texas Rangers at last year’s trade deadline.

The lefty finished the season strong with a 2.79 ERA with the Rangers before becoming a cornerstone of the rotation with a 2.90 ERA in 31 innings over six games (five starts). It was generally assumed that some teams would see Montgomery’s playoff performance and think he could do that for them, but apparently no one can.

A trade like this makes you wonder why every other contending team isn’t biting the bullet. Now, Montgomery will be switching sides from the 2023 World Series, hoping he can make those teams regret it.

Matt Chapman

Fangraphs forecast: Five years, $80 million
Report asking price: US$150 million
Reality: Three years, $54 million (with two opt-outs)

chapman is report Offered a contract worth $125 million toronto blue jays Signed a 10-year, $150 million contract with the team last year Oakland Athletics 2019. An elite third base outfielder and elite home plate hitter, he seems poised for a superstar contract, but his high strikeout rate at the plate could put other teams off.

It’s hard to justify spending so much money on Chapman when he’s proven he has a clear ceiling at the plate, especially when he’s a third baseman rather than a middle infielder.chapman’s former teammate Marcus Semien Career .256/.324/.444 and $175 million. Chapman hit .240/.329/.461 for his career and earned $54 million. Defensive position is important.

Chapman’s offensive numbers also likely wouldn’t benefit from a move to the Giants’ Oracle Park, a notoriously pitcher-friendly park. report Scared away another Boras client, J.D. Martinezstarting from signing with the team.

There’s nothing wrong with your defensive ability being greater than your offensive ability, you just have to be prepared to allow players at the opposite position to get paid more.

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