Mortgage job opportunities lower than expected

non-bank employment data Loans from mortgage bankers and brokers largely stabilized in December and are generally overvalued in 2023, according to the latest report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Composite data on real estate credit and mortgage brokerage jobs showed employment in the industry at 276,000 in December, up slightly from November’s downwardly revised figure of 275,800.

The question now is whether industry employment will continue to hold steady given the latest broader employment data showed a larger-than-expected surge, suggesting a mixed outlook for origin. U.S. employers added 353,000 jobs in January. The unemployment rate remains low at 3.7%.

“A strong job market is good news for the spring buying season, as rising household incomes are a necessary component, but it also means mortgage rates are unlikely to fall further,” said Mike Fratantoni, chief economist. Mortgage Bankers Associationsaid in an email.

Although overall employment numbers are unusually strong, there are mixed signals in the economy: Federal Open Market Committee Members will take this into account when setting interest rate policy.

“For now, the trends are not enough. Other labor force indicators continue to cool and inflation is decelerating,” First American economist Ksenia Potapov said in an emailed statement.

“If inflation continues to slow, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates three times this year, which will still keep monetary policy within a restrictive range.”

Potapov said if the rate cuts continue, mortgage rates will likely stay in the 6% range, which should help the housing market. Average qualifying rates for mortgages this week That’s 6.63%, according to Freddie Mac.

But there’s another component of the housing outlook that must also be factored into employment numbers, and that’s employment in the construction industry.

New construction has become even more important as a source of inventory as many existing homeowners are unwilling to give up the lower interest rates they obtained in the past and sell their homes unless there is a compelling reason to move.

In this regard, the latest data are promising, Potapov said.

“The largest monthly job gains were among nonresidential specialty trade contractors whose primary activity is performing specific tasks — concrete pouring, site preparation, plumbing, painting and electrical work involved in building construction,” she said.

Source link

Related Articles

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Back to top button