Dalton Del Don breaks down the players and strategies he will avoid in his 2024 fantasy football drafts.
I’m not too worried about top fantasy quarterbacks leaving the board — Even though Jalen Hurts took a big step back without Shane SteichenJason Kelce’s possible retirement could impact brotherhood; Josh Allen now leads One of the most run-heavy offenses in the league; Patrick Mahomes lacks rushing ability and scores fewer points than Jared Goff (counting Week 18) – but I will Fade the position out early in the draft Due to its deep depth.
While early ADPs suggest Hurts, Allen and Mahomes will go in the first three rounds, Anthony Richardson Fantasy points per rollback Last year, he was not selected as a top-10 fantasy quarterback.
Brock Purdy just Fourth best adjusted net yards/attempts Seasons in NFL history while scoring in yards per attempt (9.6), yards per dropback (8.8), yards per completion (13.9), expected points added per dropback (0.26), combined EPA + CPOE ( Leads the league in QBR (0.204) and QBR (72.7)).Despite being rested in Week 18, Purdy can still run and score the third-most passing touchdowns in 2023, but his early ADP has he Outside of the top 12 fantasy quarterbacks.
Matthew Stafford had a YPA of 8.4, averaged 296.0 passing yards per game, threw for 17 touchdowns in his final seven games (including the playoffs), and could have a healthy library Cooper Kupp enters with emerging stars Puka Nacua will play its home games indoors next season. The Rams are averaging the most yards per game in the NFL when healthy in 2023, but Stafford’s early ADP keeps him out of the top 15 fantasy quarterbacks (8th round).
Kirk Cousins ranked sixth among quarterbacks in points per game last year and will get a healthier Justin Jefferson to play alongside second-year Jordan Addison. Cousins assumes that when he returns to Minnesota, he will be inside with one of those players on offense. A league-high passer rating exceeded expectations, but his ADP barely ranked among the top 20 fantasy quarterbacks (10th round).
Baker Mayfield was a top-10 pick at the position last year, but he wasn’t drafted as a top-25 fantasy quarterback (14th round).And we haven’t discussed the return of Aaron Rodgers or A very exciting class of rookie quarterbacks that could be a top-three pick in the draft.
Due to the historical depth at the quarterback position, I would phase out quarterbacks in at least the first five rounds of the 2024 fantasy draft.
Stefon Diggs, wide receiver, Buffalo Bills
After averaging 103.3 receiving yards and five touchdowns in his first six games, Diggs averaged just 48.9 yards and three touchdowns in his final 13 games (including playoffs).He’s averaging an almost unbelievable 41.0 receiving yards and zero touchdowns over his past seven games, including AFC Champions League plummets.
It’s possible Diggs is dealing with a hidden injury — his offense has declined through three games — and he won’t have an easy schedule.But that Historical decline in production For a wide receiver on the wrong side of No. 30, that’s concerning. Khalil Shakir More receiving yards than Buffalo’s last 10 games despite seeing 43 fewer targets.
In addition, the bill Ranked first in rush rate and last in pass rate After Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator, Diggs’ early ADP still had him as a mid-second-round fantasy pick, drafting either DJ Moore or Rashe Rice instead.
Cooper Kupp, wide receiver, Los Angeles Rams
Kupp has missed 13 games over the past two seasons and is about to turn 31. His production also dropped significantly after a hot start in 2023, when he ranked 27th among receivers in fantasy points per game.
Just as worrisome as Kupp’s age and injury history is the emergence of Pukankua, who Saw more goals in 12 games last year.Healthy Koop Can maintain sufficient productivity Even with Nacua, there are downsides to being a 2024 third-round fantasy draft pick. Draft Tank Dale or Nico Collins.
aging running back
Derrick Henry’s decline is hardly bucking the trend, but it’s unlikely his ADP has dropped far enough. seems destined to leave tennesseeand Where he lands will obviously affect his fantasy prospectsBut history hasn’t been kind to backs in their 30s with over 2,000 touches, and it’s generally best to avoid spending fourth/fifth-round picks on players who are in the decline phase of their careers. Target Teja Spears instead.
Austin Ekeler in Actual Fantasy Points and Anticipated Fantasy Points He will be among the top running backs this season and will turn 29 in May. An early ankle injury hampered his production, but Ekeler has fumbled 10 times over the past two years (he had zero fumbles in his first five years in the league). Entering 2024 as a free agent, full of uncertaintyThat’s a big risk for a back whose early ADP is still in the late second round.
Alvin Kamara is a candidate to be waived by New Orleans. He has not played a full season since his rookie season in 2017 and will turn 29 this summer.Kamara’s early ADP is higher than Anthony Richardson’s, so just wait Catch Kendre Miller later.
James Conner averaged the most points per game (22.6) among all guards over the final six weeks of the season but missed four more games earlier in the year. He never played a full season and missed multiple games in each season except one. Conner, who wasn’t a top-25 fantasy running back in points per game from Weeks 1-13, will turn 29 this offseason and the Cardinals could introduce running back competition.
Raheem Mostert had more touchdowns last season (21) than he had in his first seven seasons in the league combined (19). He reaches 200 carries and 1,000 yards for the first time in his career in 2023. Mostert remains one of the greats.Injury risk in league, could soon be reversed 32 Years old and will have to compete for touches with a much younger running back who just threw the ball Highest DVOA rushing score ever.
Maybe Most Continue to challenge the aging curvebut he will also return after scoring Scored 10 more touchdowns than expected 2023. That said, Mostert in the 10th round may be considered safer than D’Von Akan in the 2nd round, but realize that given his age and injury history, Mostert may be a waste choose.
Trevor Lawrence, quarterback, Jacksonville Jaguars
Lawrence is not the prince we were promised. He won’t cost you a 2024 draft pick too soon, but I’m no longer expecting a leap.He certainly had some bad luck last season with falls and close touchdowns, but Lawrence also encountered many inaccuracies.
He was one of the worst quarterbacks in the league when he made his first read, and while there’s still plenty of time to grow and improve, that’s bad news Jacksonville decides to bring back OC Press Taylor (the same can be said for general manager Trent Baalke). Stafford, Cousins, Rodgers and rookies could be drafted in later rounds.